<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Suriye\u2019de HT\u015e\u2019nin 27 Kas\u0131m\u2019da ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 harekat ba\u015f d\u00f6nd\u00fcren bir h\u0131zda ilerledi, Esed iktidar\u0131yla beraber 61 y\u0131ll\u0131k Baas d\u00f6nemi 11 g\u00fcnde tarih oldu.<\/p>\n
Suriye Arap Ordusu ba\u015fkent \u015eam dahil hi\u00e7bir yerde kayda de\u011fer tek bir savunma hatt\u0131 kuramad\u0131, ne denli \u00e7\u00fcr\u00fcme i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Suriye\u2019de uzun s\u00fcredir askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 bulunduran d\u00f6rt ba\u015fkent aras\u0131nda, HT\u015e\u2019ye destek veren ve Suriye Milli Ordusu\u2019nu (SMO) do\u011frudan denetimi alt\u0131nda tutan Ankara, bu geli\u015fmelerde \u2018ba\u015f oyuncu\u2019 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6yleyse Suriye\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye kazand\u0131 diyebilir, iyimser olabilir miyiz?<\/p>\n
Cevab\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanacak iki geli\u015fme belirleyecek:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u2013 Suriye\u2019nin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn korunmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u2013 \u0130stikrar\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131, Ankara\u2019yla daha iyi i\u015fbirli\u011fi yapacak bir y\u00f6netimin i\u015fba\u015f\u0131na gelmesi ve b\u00f6ylece 4 ila 5 milyon aras\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7menin olabildi\u011fince b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6nmesi.<\/p>\n
*\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n
Bu iki hedef ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir zaman g\u00f6sterecek ama mevcut veriler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde de\u011ferlendirmeler m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n
Suriye b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcrse, par\u00e7alar kolay bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fck devletlerin etki ve av alan\u0131na girecek, her biri bunlar\u0131 kendi siyasetinin arac\u0131 olarak kullanacakt\u0131r. Bu geli\u015fmeden en b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar g\u00f6recek \u00fclke 900 km ortak s\u0131n\u0131ra sahip T\u00fcrkiye\u2019dir. \u0130laveten T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kendi toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan riskleri artacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Suriye\u2019nin b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi ABD-\u0130srail ikilisinin a\u00e7\u0131k hedefi. \u015eimdi bu deste\u011fin uygulamaya ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in \u015fartlar olgunla\u015ft\u0131; Suriye\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7, belki d\u00f6rt par\u00e7aya b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi art\u0131k neredeyse bir vak\u0131a.<\/p>\n
Birinci par\u00e7ada, HT\u015e\u2019nin\u00a0en az\u0131ndan\u00a0F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n bat\u0131s\u0131ndaki geni\u015f alanlar\u0131 y\u00f6neten g\u00fc\u00e7 olaca\u011f\u0131 belli. Bu noktada HT\u015e\u2019nin tek de\u011fil, El Kaide-I\u015e\u0130D k\u00f6kenli \u00e7ok say\u0131da cihat\u00e7\u0131 selefi ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn olu\u015fturdu\u011fu bir koalisyonun lideri oldu\u011funa dikkat edelim.<\/p>\n
\u0130kinci par\u00e7a olarak, F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n do\u011fusundaki topraklar\u0131n PKK-YPG liderli\u011findeki Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7leri (SDG) y\u00f6netiminde kalaca\u011f\u0131 27 Kas\u0131m \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla \u015fimdi \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihtimal.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130srail ikilisi bu olu\u015fumu g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze dek a\u00e7\u0131k destekledi. F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n bat\u0131s\u0131na cihat\u00e7\u0131 selefi \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin egemen olmas\u0131, bu ikilinin gerek\u00e7elerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek. Trump\u2019\u0131n \u201cSuriye\u2019ye kar\u0131\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131z\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n do\u011fusunda ge\u00e7erli olmayabilir. Yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131n \u00e7evresinin koyu \u0130srail yanda\u015flar\u0131yla dolu oldu\u011fu da unutulmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ankara\u2019n\u0131n \u201cSDG\u2019nin isim de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015f olmas\u0131 ve ter\u00f6rizmi benimsemiyoruz a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi de\u011fi\u015ftirmez, onlar ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcd\u00fcr\u201d tavr\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 planda ikna g\u00fcc\u00fc zay\u0131flayacak, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u015fimdi ortada ayn\u0131 durumdaki HT\u015e ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi ve Ankara\u2019n\u0131n onlara kar\u015f\u0131 olumlu tavr\u0131 var.<\/p>\n
Moskova bug\u00fcne dek Ankara ve SDG aras\u0131nda d\u00fcr\u00fcst arabulucu konumunda idi. Ama Rusya\u2019n\u0131n nihai bilan\u00e7osu hen\u00fcz belli olmayan b\u00fcy\u00fck zarara u\u011framas\u0131, Moskova\u2019y\u0131 da \u015fimdi herhalde SDG\u2019nin net destek\u00e7isi konumuna ta\u015f\u0131yacak. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n cihat\u00e7\u0131 selefi \u00f6rg\u00fctlere hassasiyetini de dikkate almak gerekir.<\/p>\n
Trump ve Putin\u2019in yak\u0131n dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda bir diyalog kanal\u0131 kuruldu\u011funu ve Ukrayna konusunda \u00f6n mutabakatlar sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha\u00a0\u00f6nce yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Muhtemelen ayn\u0131 kanaldan F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n do\u011fusu i\u00e7in temaslar y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcl\u00fcyor olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ankara\u2019n\u0131n \u2018ba\u015f oyuncu\u2019 oldu\u011fu son geli\u015fmelerin, F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n do\u011fusunda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 dahi SDG\u2019ye daha yak\u0131n bir pozisyona getirmesi b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u00fcrpriz olmaz.<\/p>\n
Hi\u00e7 kimse Suriye n\u00fcfusunun %9\u2019unu olu\u015fturan K\u00fcrtler nas\u0131l \u00fclkenin bu kadar geni\u015f bir b\u00f6lgesini y\u00f6netebilir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesin, \u00f6rnek \u00e7ok. N\u00fcfusun %13\u2019ini olu\u015fturan Aleviler 61 y\u0131l Suriye\u2019nin tamam\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmedi mi?<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc par\u00e7a b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u015eam\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyindeki da\u011fl\u0131k b\u00f6lgeye el koyacak \u0130srail\u2019e gidecek (Cebel D\u00fcrzi veya D\u00fcrzi Da\u011f\u0131). B\u00f6ylece 1967\u2019den beri Golan tepelerini elinde tutan \u0130srail, bu arazinin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 daha da ileriye ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f olur.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcrziler Suriye n\u00fcfusunun %3-4\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor, \u015eia \u0130slam\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir alt dal\u0131, kendine \u00f6zg\u00fc inan\u00e7 ve ibadetlere sahip bir mezhep ve a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak D\u00fcrzi Da\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgesinde ya\u015f\u0131yorlar. Tarihi haf\u0131zalar\u0131 \u00e7ektikleri zul\u00fcmlerle dolu D\u00fcrziler, cihat\u00e7\u0131 selefi HT\u015e y\u00f6netimi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u0130srail\u2019in b\u00f6lgeye girmesine herhalde b\u00fcy\u00fck tepki g\u00f6stermez.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail\u2019in gerek\u00e7e bulmas\u0131 kolay: HT\u015e\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik \u00f6nlemi olarak tampon b\u00f6lge kuruyoruz. Golan tepeleri dahil \u0130srail\u2019in i\u015fgal etti\u011fi topraklardan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 art\u0131k daha uzak bir hayal.<\/p>\n
Meselenin \u0130srail\u2019in bu b\u00f6lgeye girip girmeyece\u011fi de\u011fil, yeni s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 ad\u0131m ad\u0131m nereye kadar geni\u015fletece\u011fi diye g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olabilir.<\/p>\n
Suriye\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 par\u00e7aya b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi y\u00fcksek ihtimal; daha az olas\u0131l\u0131kla d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc par\u00e7a ise Tartus-Lazkiye b\u00f6lgesinde Nusayri n\u00fcfusun yo\u011fun ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Rus askeri \u00fcslerinin bulundu\u011fu b\u00f6lge olabilir. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da isteyece\u011fi bu se\u00e7enek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir mi, g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
Peki, Ankara\u2019n\u0131n ikinci temel hedefi olmas\u0131 gereken Suriye\u2019de istikrar, yeni y\u00f6netimle iyi ili\u015fkiler ve b\u00f6ylece g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir mi?<\/p>\n
Bilinmeyen etmen \u00e7ok, bekleyip g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
Mesela HT\u015e liderli\u011findeki koalisyonda \u00e7ok say\u0131da cihat\u00e7\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fct var, \u015fimdi ortak d\u00fc\u015fman Esed ortadan kalk\u0131nca acaba neler ya\u015fanacak?<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki benzer \u00f6rnekler iyimser olmaya yard\u0131m etmiyor. Yabanc\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin d\u0131\u015fardan askeri m\u00fcdahalesi sonunda Libya, Afganistan, Somali\u2019nin nas\u0131l karga\u015fa ve kanl\u0131 hesapla\u015fmalar bata\u011f\u0131na sapland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortada.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail temkinli bir memnuniyet i\u00e7inde. Ancak \u00fcnl\u00fc Yahudi yorumcu Ben Caspit, \u0130srail g\u00fcvenlik uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funun birle\u015fti\u011fi bir hususa\u00a0i\u015faret ediyor:\u00a0\u201cEsed her ne kadar despot ve gaddar da olsa, iktidardan d\u00fc\u015fmesi, Suriye\u2019nin tek adam taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6netilen egemen bir devlet oldu\u011fu g\u00fcnleri \u00f6zlemle aratacak geli\u015fmelere yol a\u00e7abilir\u201d.<\/p>\n
Umal\u0131m ki \u00f6yle olmas\u0131n.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hesaba katmas\u0131 gereken, muhtemelen dibe vuracak Rusya ve \u0130ran ili\u015fkileri de var.<\/p>\n
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019deki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve prestiji ciddi darbe ald\u0131. Ukrayna\u2019ya ilaveten muhtemelen G\u00fcrcistan\u2019daki kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klara yo\u011funla\u015fan Rus istihbarat\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fc s\u0131nav verdi, fena \u015fekilde atlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n temkinli \u00fcslubu ile bilinen deneyimli D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Lavrov \u015fimdiden sert ifadelerle Ankara\u2019y\u0131 ele\u015ftiriyor ki, hen\u00fcz Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Tartus-Lazkiye \u00fcslerinin ak\u0131beti tam bilinmiyor ve orada Ankara\u2019n\u0131n deste\u011fine ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen.<\/p>\n
Rusya ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n elinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye zarar verebilecek alet bol. Bunlardan sadece biri, PKK\u2019ya hayal edemeyece\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ak\u0131tabilecekleri destek. Silahl\u0131 silahs\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131 dahil \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n art\u0131k Suriye\u2019ye g\u00f6nderemeyece\u011fi askeri malzemenin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir mi?<\/p>\n
*\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n
Uzun Suriye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131m\u0131z boyunca muhtemelen biri El Kaide-I\u015e\u0130D k\u00f6kenli, di\u011feri PKK k\u00f6kenli \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin y\u00f6netti\u011fi iki kom\u015fumuz olacak, baz\u0131 yerlerde tampon b\u00f6lgeler olu\u015fturulsa bile.<\/p>\n
Son geli\u015fmelerin \u2018ba\u015f oyuncu\u2019 Ankara\u2019n\u0131n esasen, d\u00fc\u011fmeye basarken, yukar\u0131da \u00f6zetledi\u011fimiz iki stratejik hedefi de\u011ferlendirerek karar vermesi gerekirdi. De\u011findi\u011fimiz hususlar\u0131n hepsi 27 Kas\u0131m \u00f6ncesinde biliniyordu.<\/p>\n
Ancak nas\u0131l hesaplar ve analizler yap\u0131ld\u0131, hangi temel hedefler belirlendi, tam olarak bilmiyoruz.<\/p>\n
Suriye\u2019nin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyoruz, F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n do\u011fusunda PKK ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yap\u0131ya asla izin vermeyece\u011fiz, B\u00fcy\u00fck \u0130srail\u2019e \u015fiddetle kar\u015f\u0131y\u0131z diye deme\u00e7ler vermek hi\u00e7 zor de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n
Ama iktidarlar i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ek test uygulad\u0131klar\u0131 siyasetin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Kazananlar: Amerika, \u0130srail, HT\u015e, SDG, PKK-YPG.<\/p>\n
Kaybedenler: Esed, Rusya, \u0130ran, Hizbullah.<\/p>\n
Suriye ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin durumunu zaman g\u00f6sterecek.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Suriye\u2019de HT\u015e\u2019nin 27 Kas\u0131m\u2019da ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 harekat ba\u015f d\u00f6nd\u00fcren bir h\u0131zda ilerledi, Esed iktidar\u0131yla beraber 61 y\u0131ll\u0131k Baas d\u00f6nemi 11 g\u00fcnde tarih oldu. Suriye Arap Ordusu ba\u015fkent \u015eam dahil hi\u00e7bir yerde kayda de\u011fer tek bir savunma hatt\u0131 kuramad\u0131, ne denli \u00e7\u00fcr\u00fcme i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Suriye\u2019de uzun s\u00fcredir askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 bulunduran d\u00f6rt ba\u015fkent aras\u0131nda, HT\u015e\u2019ye destek […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16129,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","category-gundem"],"yoast_head":"\n