<\/p>\n
\n\tFed’de 2018’de devrald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fkanl\u0131k g\u00f6revi s\u0131ras\u0131nda modern ekonomi tarihinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015foklar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalan Powell’\u0131n bu haftaki para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda resmi olarak ba\u015fkan s\u0131fat\u0131yla son mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 vermesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\n\tAncak halefi Kevin Warsh’un tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 onay s\u00fcreci, Fed’deki bayrak tesliminin zaman\u0131nda yap\u0131l\u0131p yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirsiz k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\n\tFed’e geni\u015f bir kariyer ge\u00e7mi\u015fiyle gelen Powell, kamu hizmetine ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce uzun y\u0131llar avukat<\/a> ve yat\u0131r\u0131m<\/a> bankac\u0131s\u0131 olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. George W. Bush d\u00f6neminde Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda m\u00fcste\u015far yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 ve m\u00fcste\u015far olarak g\u00f6rev yapan Powell, May\u0131s 2012’de Eski ABD<\/a> Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Barack Obama taraf\u0131ndan Fed<\/a> Y\u00f6netim Kurulu’na atand\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\tABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump<\/a> ise ilk ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde, selefi taraf\u0131ndan atanan Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Janet Yellen’\u0131 ikinci d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in yeniden aday g\u00f6stermeyerek Powell’\u0131 bu g\u00f6rev i\u00e7in se\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n
\n\tSiyaset ve hukuk<\/a> alanlar\u0131ndaki e\u011fitimiyle Fed’in yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 y\u0131ld\u0131r “ekonomi derecesine sahip olmayan tek ba\u015fkan\u0131” olma \u00f6zelli\u011fini ta\u015f\u0131yan Powell, 5 \u015eubat 2018’de Yellen’dan g\u00f6revi devralarak bankan\u0131n 16’nc\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
\n\tPowell’\u0131n g\u00f6revindeki ilk 4 y\u0131l\u0131, faiz<\/a> art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 “hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011frayan” Trump’\u0131n sert ele\u015ftirileriyle ge\u00e7se de kurumun ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruma \u00e7abas\u0131yla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\t23 May\u0131s 2022’de bu kez Demokrat Ba\u015fkan Joe Biden<\/a> taraf\u0131ndan Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ikinci bir d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in yeniden aday g\u00f6sterilen Powell, bu sayede siyasi partiler \u00fcst\u00fc bir g\u00fcven tazeledi. Biden’\u0131n Powell’\u0131 Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na yeniden aday g\u00f6stermesi Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik etkileri devam ederken istikrar mesaj\u0131 olarak yorumland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\tPowell, Trump’\u0131n 20 Ocak 2025’te ikinci kez ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olmas\u0131yla ise kendini \u00e7ok daha sert bir siyasi atmosferin i\u00e7inde buldu.<\/p>\n
\n\tBeyaz Saray’dan gelen agresif faiz indirimi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131na boyun e\u011fmeyen Powell, Trump’\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman hakarete varan sert ele\u015ftirilerine maruz kal\u0131rken faiz indirimlerinde “\u00e7ok ge\u00e7 kalmakla” su\u00e7land\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu gerilim, Powell y\u00f6netimindeki Fed’e y\u00f6nelik \u00e7e\u015fitli soru\u015fturmalar\u0131n ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131yla yeni bir boyuta ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\tCovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131ndan sava\u015flara krizlerin g\u00f6lgesinde Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ge\u00e7en 8 y\u0131l<\/h2>\n
\n\tBug\u00fcn 73 ya\u015f\u0131ndaki Powell’\u0131n sekiz y\u0131ll\u0131k ba\u015fkanl\u0131k karnesi, Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131ndan Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 ile Orta Do\u011fu’daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara modern ekonomi tarihinin en zorlu s\u0131navlar\u0131yla \u015fekillendi.<\/p>\n
\n\tPowell, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k g\u00f6revinin 2018-2022 y\u0131llar\u0131ndaki ilk 4 y\u0131l\u0131nda normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecinden benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir kriz y\u00f6netimine keskin bir ge\u00e7i\u015f yapt\u0131. G\u00f6revinin ilk y\u0131l\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fclmesini i\u00e7eren s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikas\u0131 izleyen Powell ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki Fed, 2019’da bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
\n\tBanka, 2019’un ba\u015flar\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 durdururken y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimlerine giderek daha destekleyici bir yakla\u015f\u0131m benimsedi.<\/p>\n
\n\tBa\u015fkanl\u0131k g\u00f6revinin ikinci y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonunda \u00c7in’de patlak veren ve 2020’nin ba\u015f\u0131nda ABD’ye s\u0131\u00e7rayan Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 ekonomik kriz<\/a> ise Powell’\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131nav\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
\n\tS\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nan karantina<\/a> \u00f6nlemleriyle ekonomik faaliyet durma noktas\u0131na gelirken i\u015f kay\u0131plar\u0131 tarihi seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131. Salg\u0131n\u0131n yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik daralma kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda para politikas\u0131 cephesinde tarihi gev\u015feme politikalar\u0131 uyguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\tMart 2020’de faizleri s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n seviyeye indiren ve piyasaya trilyonlarca dolarl\u0131k likidite sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131 yapan Fed, salg\u0131n\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu krize kar\u015f\u0131 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc ad\u0131mlar att\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\tPowell, A\u011fustos 2020’de ise Fed’in politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik a\u00e7\u0131klayarak bankan\u0131n ortalama y\u00fczde 2 enflasyonu hedefleyece\u011fini duyurdu.<\/p>\n
\n\tSalg\u0131n sonras\u0131 ekonomik faaliyetlerin toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde tedarik zinciri ile i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc dengesizlikleri ortaya \u00e7\u0131karken bu durum fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 besledi.<\/p>\n
\n\tCovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6neminde Fed’in piyasaya enjekte etti\u011fi likidite ve uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 geni\u015fleyici politikalar da sonras\u0131nda gelen enflasyonist dalgaya zemin haz\u0131rlayan fakt\u00f6rlerden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\n\tEnflasyonda 2021’de g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine ra\u011fmen Powell fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu savundu. Ancak Powell’\u0131n bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ABD’de y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun Haziran 2022’de y\u00fczde 9 ile 41 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rmesiyle ciddi \u015fekilde ele\u015ftirildi.<\/p>\n
\n\tSalg\u0131n\u0131n etkileri ge\u00e7erken \u015eubat 2022’de ba\u015flayan Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 da k\u00fcresel enerji<\/a> ve g\u0131da<\/a> fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 alt\u00fcst etti ve Fed’in enflasyonun ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011fu tezini terk ederek Mart 2022’de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u015flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\tMart 2022’den Temmuz 2023’e kadar olan s\u00fcre\u00e7te 11 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na giden Fed, politika faizini Eyl\u00fcl 2024’e kadar 2001’den bu yana kaydedilen en y\u00fcksek seviye olan y\u00fczde 5,25-5,50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tuttu.<\/p>\n
\n\tBanka, enflasyonun yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla Eyl\u00fcl 2024’te politika y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirerek faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda zay\u0131flama sinyallerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesiyle faiz indirimleri 2025’in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda da devam etti.<\/p>\n
\n\tEn son Aral\u0131k 2025’te politika faizinde indirime giden Fed, Trump’\u0131n agresif tarife politikalar\u0131 ile \u015fubat ay\u0131n\u0131n sonunda \u00e7\u0131kan ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 tetiklemesiyle 2026’n\u0131n ocak ve mart aylar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen y\u0131l\u0131n ilk iki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda temkinli bir tutum benimseyerek politika faizini sabit tuttu.<\/p>\n
\n\t2018’den 2026’ya verilerle Powell d\u00f6nemi<\/h2>\n
\n\tPowell g\u00f6reve geldi\u011finde ABD ekonomisi<\/a> olduk\u00e7a istikrarl\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyordu.<\/p>\n
\n\t\u00dclkede \u015eubat 2018’de y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon<\/a> y\u00fczde 2,3, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 4,1 seviyesindeydi. Fed’in politika faizi de y\u00fczde 1,25-1,50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\tGe\u00e7en 8 y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelinen noktada tablo olduk\u00e7a volatil bir makroekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
\n\tCovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n en \u015fiddetli hissedildi\u011fi May\u0131s 2020’de y\u00fczde 0,2’ye kadar gerileyen y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon oran\u0131, salg\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 2022’de y\u00fczde 9’a kadar t\u0131rman\u0131rken Mart 2026 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 3,3 seviyesinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
\n\t\u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda ise Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ncesi \u015eubat 2020’de y\u00fczde 3,5 seviyesine kadar gerileyen i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 Nisan 2020’de y\u00fczde 14,8’e s\u0131\u00e7rarken Mart 2026 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 4,3 seviyesinde seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
\n\t\u00dclkede politika faizi ise \u015fu anda y\u00fczde 3,5-3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
\n\tPowell’\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir geni\u015fleme ya\u015fayan Fed’in bilan\u00e7osu ise 2018 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 4,4 trilyon dolar<\/a> seviyesinden Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131na y\u00f6nelik m\u00fcdahalelerle 2022’de yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 trilyon dolarl\u0131k zirveye ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla 6,7 trilyon dolar civar\u0131nda seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
\n\tG\u00f6revi devretme s\u00fcrecinde “soru\u015fturma” engeli k\u0131smen ortadan kalk\u0131yor<\/h2>\n
\n\tPowell’\u0131n 15 May\u0131s’ta sona erecek g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresinin dolmas\u0131na bir aydan az s\u00fcre kal\u0131rken Trump’\u0131n Fed ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na aday g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi Kevin Warsh’un Senato onay\u0131n\u0131 alarak koltu\u011fa ne zaman oturabilece\u011fi hen\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fini koruyor.<\/p>\n
\n\tBankan\u0131n Eski Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi olan Warsh 21 Nisan’da ABD Senatosu’nun Bankac\u0131l\u0131k, Konut<\/a> ve Kentsel \u0130\u015fler Komitesi’nin \u00f6n\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131ksa da Washington’daki siyasi \u00e7eki\u015fmelerden dolay\u0131 resmi bir onay oturumu i\u00e7in tarih hen\u00fcz belirlenmedi.<\/p>\n
\n\tOnay s\u00fcrecindeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck engel Powell’a y\u00f6nelik Trump y\u00f6netimi taraf\u0131ndan ba\u015flat\u0131lan ve Fed binas\u0131ndaki tadilat maliyetlerini konu alan adli soru\u015fturma olurken gelinen noktada Demokrat senat\u00f6rlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Senat\u00f6r Thom Tillis gibi isimler bu soru\u015fturma netle\u015fmeden Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131 aday\u0131n\u0131 onaylamamak i\u00e7in diren\u00e7 g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n